In 2007, at a large investment bank, I heard many lectures about the derivatives markets and securitizing all manner of exotic assets. They were extremely complex mathematically but profitable trades for sure.
A bank executive once joked to interns that they know how to securitize your grandmother if investors wanted that. Then he paused and looked into the distance, as if thinking about how to actually do that. The financial crisis soon unfolded.
A few years later, when pitching one of my first investors (and now good friend) he told me a story about how he first approached crypto. While he has a lot of it now, a first question for him was, “guys, are you sure this is a good idea?”
That one line always stuck with me.
His point wasn’t whether crypto would work or not, or make everyone rich one day, it was more whether this was a good idea more broadly for society.
A few years later I had a meeting with an investor discussing a new crypto product idea. I was on the fence — I could tell it would be popular but it didn’t fit any reasonable need for a trader outside of pure gambling. He had little interest in those qualms. It bothered me a bit that we didn’t even consider the question of whether this was a good idea.
Years after that, a well intentioned cyberweapon, Stuxnet, sabotaged the Iranian nuclear program. Then shortly after, the same tools developed by the NSA were repurposed against hospitals to demand ransomware. I wonder how many times the hackers in Tailored Access Operations asked whether it was a good idea to build these things in the first place.
Another few years later, a catastrophic pandemic cripples the world and changes everyone’s way of life. Congregating, traveling, working, etc. There are now reports beyond the original speculation that COVID was a purposely evolved virus (to be used for study, to be clear) from a lab that accidentally got out. I wonder how many virologists were questioning whether this was a good idea when assigned to the project.
Years later and 1 year into the pandemic, I’m asking this question now with different projects with increasing frequency. Guys, is this a good idea? Not in the sense of will it work (COVID is very successful at what it does, after all). But should we even be doing this at all?
There are lots of projects from a historical lens that are regretted by their own founders. Some early members of certain social networks regret connecting people so effectively — what if they are actually just making it easier for people to hate and envy each other?
Many scientists involved in the Manhattan project for the atomic bomb deeply regret doing it in the first place. Awesome science and highly effective — but, maybe oblivion too. Brilliant projects that work don’t necessarily mean they’re good ideas.
I guess in my old age I’ve been worn down so many times with this story replaying itself. I’d rather not see it again if possible. I’d like to go to restaurants again. I’d like to feel secure that fissile material for a nuke isn’t being bought on the darkweb. I’d like to know that if I had to go to the nearest hospital, no ransomware built on the back of NSA tools will delay my treatment.
Is this a good idea? It’s a hard question. I think it’s important to ask it.
At the very least, there are always other ideas to work on.
